Every year it seems that we’re confronted with more and more headlines about the horrible state of gay rights in some corner of the world – even here at home in North America. But as we head into 2020, it’s worth looking back at the tremendous progress queer people made this decade in asserting and achieving our rights clear across the globe.

For the last several years, I’ve posted this annual update on the state of same-sex marriage laws around the world as an extension of my work keeping track of global developments daily on my twitter feed @lgbtmarriage. This year, I’m adding a little tweak to point out the development of laws around LGBT rights over the past decade.

Here were the main headlines this year:

Same-sex marriage

Came into effect: Austria (2017 court ruling)
Passed and came into effect: Taiwan; Ecuador (Supreme Court Ruling); Mexican states Baja California Sur, Hidalgo, San Luis Potosi, Nuevo Leon, and Aguascalientes, with codification of court ruling in Oaxaca
Passed into law, coming into effect in 2020: Northern Ireland, Sark, (a 2018 court ruling from Costa Rica comes into effect in 2020 as well)
Court ruling not yet in effect: Mexican state Sinaloa

Civil Unions

Came into effect: San Marino
Passed into law, coming into effect in 2020: Monaco
Supreme Court ruling not yet in effect: Cayman Islands

Criminalization of Homosexuality

Decriminalization: Angola (legislative), Botswana (court ruling), Canada (archaic – legislative)
Criminalization: Gabon, Brunei (came into effect)

Anti-Discrimination

Constitutional ban on sexual orientation discrimination: San Marino

But let’s compare the change over the past decade. At the end of 2009, the only countries with same-sex marriage were the following: Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Spain, South Africa, Sweden, Norway, and four US states

Over the following decade, we added 21 countries: Portugal, Iceland, Argentina, (most of) Mexico, Denmark (and all territories), the Caribbean Netherlands, Brazil, France (and all territories), Uruguay, New Zealand, UK (plus the Crown Dependencies and most territories), Luxembourg, US, Ireland, Colombia, Finland, Malta, Germany, Australia, Austria, Taiwan, and Ecuador. In addition, international court rulings have supported expanding same-sex couple rights across the Americas and the European Union, while civil society groups have emerged promoting legalization of same-sex marriage across Asia. This decade brought the movement for marriage equality to every part of the world.

The decriminalization movement also saw strong momentum this decade. Since 2010, thirteen countries have erased laws banning same-sex relations: Fiji, Lesotho, São Tomé and Príncipe, North Cyprus, Palau, Mozambique, Seychelles, Belize, Nauru, India, Trinidad and Tobago, Angola, and Botswana. In addition, Bhutan and the Cook Islands have advanced decriminalization bills that are expected to pass in 2020. We also a slight retrenchment, as Chad and Gabon criminalized same-sex relations for the first time, South Sudan was created with criminal penalties from the start and a few states like Brunei, Nigeria, and Uganda introduced stiffer penalties for them. Still, the total number of criminalizing states shrank by about one-seventh compared to 2009. And with India decriminalizing, the total number of people living in criminalizing states shrank by more than half.

It is entirely possible that within the near future, there will be more equal marriage countries (currently 29) than criminalizing states (currently 70).

What does the next decade look like for same-sex marriage and LGBT rights?

Well, the project to achieve equal marriage appears largely complete in Western Europe and the Anglophone settler countries. The next decade will likely see same-sex marriage become more mainstream in these countries, including through cleaning up family codes to provide true equality to families and legalizing full LGBT couple adoption in the few places that don’t allow it. We’ll likely also see equal marriage extended to the few territories here that don’t have it: Switzerland, Italy, the European microstates of Andorra, Liechtenstein and Monaco (though the latter two will likely await a change in their royal houses), plus the UK’s territories in the Caribbean, and American Samoa.

I imagine we’ll see equal marriage campaigns make progress in Eastern European states, especially those that are members or aspiring members of the European Union. Already, strong equal marriage movements exist in Czechia and Slovenia, many of these states recognize some form of civil union, and discussion around LGBT couple rights has become commonplace. It’s entirely possible that by the end of the decade, the EU itself could determine that marriage is a fundamental right that must be protected.

In the Americas, where more than 80% of the population already lives in an equal marriage jurisdiction, we’ve only begun to see the fallout of the 2018 Interamerican Court of Human Rights decision on same-sex marriage and trans rights, with decisions in Costa Rica and Ecuador enforcing it. We’ll likely see the decision take root in much of the rest of Latin America (and some Caribbean states that accept the jurisdiction of the court) through the 2020s. Cuba and Chile already have strong equal marriage movements that could bear fruit in the next couple of years.

In the Anglo Caribbean, we’ll probably see many, if not all, of these states decriminalize homosexuality through the pending court cases that have already been filed. While these states are tiny, they are 1/7^th of the world’s criminalizing countries. Meanwhile, I suspect Dutch Caribbean countries Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten could be the most likely of the small islands to legalize next, although reports from there are hard to come by.

The real place to watch in the 2020s will be Asia. Will the Taiwanese equal marriage decision be a one-off? I don’t think so, given the vocal LGBT rights movements that have sprung up across the region in its wake. I would wager Japan and Thailand are the most likely places to legalize same-sex marriage (civil partnerships are up for a vote in the latter in 2020). Movements have also gained momentum in India, China, Bhutan, Nepal, South Korea, Philippines, and Cambodia. These are nowhere near mainstream yet, but then again, it wasn’t a mainstream opinion ten years before Obergfell in the USA. I would also wager that criminal laws against homosexuality will disappear for good in places like Sri Lanka, Singapore, Myanmar and Bhutan (already scheduled for a vote in the latter). The UN’s successful repeal campaign in the Pacific region will also continue to bear fruit, I think. The seven Oceania states that criminalize homosexuality are 1/10^th of the criminalizing states.

Africa remains a real longshot to see same-sex marriage take root. There are cases in Namibia and Mauritius and we’ll see how they shake out. I suspect we’ll see some states repealing criminalizing laws and other states entrenching them more deeply, but it’s impossible to predict right now. Court cases in Kenya and Mauritius for decriminalization are ongoing, and there had previously been active campaigns seeking decriminalization in Malawi, Morocco, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. But for the most part, the future in Africa is unclear.

For now, the total population living in same-sex marriage looks approximately like this:

United States (including Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, and the US Virgin Islands; excluding American Samoa)	327,847,797
Brazil	209,567,920
Mexico	128,632,004
Germany	80,716,000
United Kingdom (including Isle of Man, Guernsey, Alderney, Sark, Bermuda, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Pitcairn Islands, Akrotiri & Dhekelia, St. Helena, Ascension Island and Tristan da Cunha, South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands, UK Antarctic territory)	67,924,003
France (including all territories)	66,842,000
South Africa	54,978,907
Colombia	48,654,392
Spain	46,064,604
Argentina	43,847,277
Canada	36,286,378
Taiwan	23,550,077
Australia	23,702,300
Netherlands (including Caribbean Netherlands, excluding Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten)	17,000,059
Ecuador	16,385,450
Belgium	11,371,928
Portugal	10,304,434
Sweden	9,851,852
Austria	8,504,850
Denmark (including Greenland and Faroe Islands)	5,764,423
Finland	5,523,904
Norway	5,271,958
Ireland	4,713,993
New Zealand (excluding territories)	4,565,185
Uruguay	3,444,071
Luxembourg	576,243
Malta	446,547
Iceland	331,778
TOTAL	1,262,670,332

 

The Americas

Up to 2009: Canada, four US states
2010-2018: USA, (most of) Mexico, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Colombia, French territories, Caribbean Netherlands, Bermuda, Greenland;
Civil unions in Chile and Aruba
Updates in 2019: Ecuador, Mexican states Baja California Sur, Hidalgo, San Luis Potosi, Nuevo Leon, Aguascalientes, and the Supreme Court of Cayman Islands finds for civil unions (not yet in effect)

Looking ahead to 2020: A court ruling for equal marriage in Costa Rica comes into effect no later than May 26; Court rulings are pending in Chile, Honduras, Panama and Peru; the Judicial Committee of the UK Privy Council may hear appeals in the Bermuda and Cayman Islands marriage cases that may spell the fate of marriage bans in five remaining UK territories that do not have same-sex marriage; a bill may yet advance through Chile’s legislature.
Court cases seeking decriminalization of same-sex relations have been filed in Jamaica, Barbados, St Dominica, and St Vincent and the Grenadines.

Through the 2010s, the vast majority of people living in the Americas saw their countries legalize same-sex marriage, as the biggest countries in the hemisphere all swung in favor. In addition, a 2018 ruling by the Interamerican Court of Human Rights, a super-national court whose decisions are binding on several other states in the Americas came down in favor of equal marriage and trans rights. States have been slow to accept the ruling (the IACHR has no enforcement mechanism of its own), but we’ve already seen courts in Costa Rica and Ecuador enact the decision locally.

Here are this year’s main developments:

Ecuador: The Constitutional Court began hearings into same-sex marriage in March 2019, in part spurred on by the 2018 IACHR ruling. A decision was announced quickly in June 2019 and took effect on publication July 8. Reactions from politicians, including the president, have been largely supportive. Previously, Ecuador had only civil unions for same-sex couples, but that was considered rather radical when they were enacted in 2008. It is not currently clear if same-sex married couples may adopt, though recent court decisions suggest the courts may lean toward at least co-parent recognition.

(In all of the maps in this section, Light Green signifies the country is under the jurisdiction of the Interamerican Court of Human Rights and must eventually abide by its decision on equal marriage; Yellow signifies that the country has a criminal prohibition against homosexuality (though not enforced); and Red signifies the constitution is interpreted to ban same-sex marriage.)

Costa Rica: Politicians have failed to legislate for equal marriage in advance of last year’s Supreme Court ruling taking effect, but that’s not to say there haven’t been developments and drama. In February, new guidelines were published allowing same-sex couples access to a housing allowance, anticipating the new laws. Meanwhile, conservative lawmakers tried to pass a ban on same-sex marriage in defiance of the ruling, allowing LGBT civil unions only. The attempt failed. The Supreme Court ruling takes effect May 26, 2020.

Mexico: The progressive wave that swept through Mexican states in 2018 elections had a little more luck this year, but also some stumbles. Equal marriage bills passed in Baja California Sur, Hidalgo, and San Luis Potosi. Courts issued acts of unconstitutionality (strikedowns of laws that are only allowed in rare circumstances in Mexican law) in Aguascalientes and Nuevo Leon. [EDIT: Oaxaca also passed a bill codifying a 2018 court decision for equal marriage into law, and some municipalities in Baja California reduced the extra administrative work required for same-sex marriage]. Votes to legalize same-sex marriage failed in Yucatan (multiple times!), Zacatecas and Sinaloa, but in the latter, a very recent court ruling seems to have ordered the legislature to reconsider – which leaders are saying they will do in early 2020. Meanwhile, the national MORENA party has proposed a constitutional amendment that would compel all states to legalize same-sex marriage within three months if passed. We’ll keep an eye on this in the new year, however bear in mind that LGBT couples do have access to marriage through a rather elaborate and expensive legal process even in states where it is not officially legal. In total, 18 out of 31 states and Mexico City provide legal same-sex marriages in law. We may also expect further states to pass marriage equality bills on their own in the new year, particularly Baja California, Puebla, Mexico State, and Veracruz where discussions were ongoing all year.

Chile: A same-sex marriage bill that has been stalled in the legislature since 2016 saw renewed interest in 2019, as the President of the Senate insisted it would be brought forward for debate. There appears to be a majority in support of the bill in both houses, though the President has stated his clear opposition and threatened a veto. The Chilean LGBT group Movilh, has brought a complaint to the Interamerican Commission on Human Rights, which had brokered a friendly settlement between Movilh and the previous government that was predicated on legalization. Progress on the bill has stalled, perhaps in part due to civil unrest in the country.
Meanwhile, a case seeking same-sex marriage is winding its way through the courts: After the Court of Appeals refused to hear the case in January, the Supreme Court intervened and ordered it to hear the case in February. We’ll keep watching all the developments here.
Fun fact: Chile is the only country with a territorial claim to Antarctica without same-sex marriage, so it’s the last holdout on that continent (besides Argentina, UK, France, Norway, Australia and New Zealand). Easter Island in Polynesia would also be affected by any equal marriage law in Chile.

Cuba: After much debate, the new Cuban constitution neither enacted nor banned same-sex marriage in the country. The government has suggested that same-sex marriage will be included in revisions to the country’s Family Code, expected to be put to referendum in early 2021, following consultations in 2020.

United States: The Bay Mills Indian Community, the Colorado River Indian Tribes, and the Oglala Sioux Tribe updated their local laws to allow for same-sex marriage (most of the more than 500 Indigenous nations of the US operate under their own marriage law, although many recognize any legal marriage performed in the US).
A federal court decided for the first time that American Samoans are US citizens by birth, not “US Nationals.” The reason this is important is that this unique distinction is the reason why the 2015 Supreme Court decision for equal marriage has not been applied to American Samoa. We shall see how the courts and governments interpret the decision. If it stands, it would seem to be an open and shut case for a local to bring a challenge in court for equal marriage. It is the last remaining US territory without equal marriage.

Canada: After years of delay, Canada finally updated its Criminal Code to remove archaic laws that had been used to target queer people. These included a differential age of consent for anal sex (already struck down in several provinces), and other offences related to vagrancy and bawdy houses. An “indecent acts” offence remains on the books after Parliament had been assured that the offence is so limited as to not specifically target queer people, but rather public and abusive sexual behavior. Decriminalization of homosexuality began in 1969, when buggery was removed from the criminal code.

El Salvador: The Constitutional Court agreed to hear a same-sex marriage case in August.

Panama, Honduras: Same-sex marriage cases are pending in these countries’ constitutional courts, for several years.

Venezuela: No progress amid the ongoing political chaos on the country.

Peru, Paraguay: Upcoming elections have included discussions about same-sex marriage, which hints that the public is opening up to the idea. I would be surprised if any real change comes in the new year though. A court case in Peru is seeking recognition of marriages performed abroad.

[EDIT: Curaçao: Two MPs submitted a same-sex marriage bill to the Estates of Curaçao, but the bill has not been brought up for a vote or debate as far as I can see.]

UK Territories: Bermuda’s legal ban on same-sex marriage was struck down by the courts last year, though the decision is being appealed to the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council. The Cayman Islands High Court ruled in favor of equal marriage in February, but the Court of Appeal overturned the decision in November. The Appeal Court ruling called on the government to instead pass a civil partnership law equivalent to marriage, but did not impose a deadline. The petitioning couple was considering an appeal to the Privy Council as well. Whatever the Privy Council decides will likely impact the remaining UK territories without equal marriage, all in the Americas: Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos, Anguilla, and Montserrat. The case will likely be heard in the new year, and the court will have a few options: impose equal marriage, impose civil partnerships (perhaps with a deadline, or a threat to impose equal marriage), or do nothing at all. If I had to guess, I’d say civil partnerships are the most likely result. A possible monkey wrench is that the UK government itself could step in and impose either equal marriage or civil partnerships, as Parliament had hinted it was willing to do earlier this year when it issued a report calling on the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to do just that (and when it imposed those laws on Northern Ireland). However, the makeup of Parliament has changed significantly since then.

Anglo Caribbean: Following successful court cases striking down sodomy laws in Belize (2016) and Trinidad and Tobago (2018), LGBT activists across the Caribbean organized a campaign to file court cases challenging sodomy laws in the other former British colonies in the region. The campaign has been supported by Canadian activists including the Canadian HIV/AIDS Legal Network and law students at the University of Toronto, as well as local groups and Lawyers Without Borders. These nine states are the only Western Hemisphere countries that still criminalize same-sex relations (though a vague statue against cross-dressing stands in Haiti).

A court case in Jamaica has been pending and subject to delays in local courts since 2015. The IACHR announced a review of the laws in 2018. This year, a local activist has also petitioned the IACHR to rule in favor of same-sex marriage on the island. The Interamerican Commission heard the sodomy law challenge in November and is expected to rule in the new year. A separate case seeking equal marriage was also filed in local Jamaican courts this year.

A case filed at the IACHR by three LGBT people from Barbados in 2018 saw the beginnings of action. The Commission called on the state to file a response in July 2019. There is no word yet on how the government responded, though the government has insisted it will defend the law. (Hey Rihanna, any chance you could help out your gay fans by calling on your country’s government to do better?)

A gay man who wishes to remain anonymous filed a case against Dominica’s sodomy and gross indecency laws in June 2019, which is pending.

After a well publicized murder of a man perceived to be gay in February, and the suicide of a gay teen in March, Saint Lucia’s Justice Minister and many local religious leaders called for a review of the buggery law. The country had its first pride parade in August. Saint Lucia is one of the countries targeted for a sodomy law challenge, though no case has yet been filed.

Two gay men who are living elsewhere as refugees filed a challenge to the sodomy law in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines in July 2019. The Prime Minister has suggested that if the law fails here, similar laws will tumble across the Eastern Caribbean, as they all have the same general foundation.

Guyana’s local LGBT group SASOD said in May that it hoped the government would repeal the sodomy laws, following successful discussions with the Legal Affairs Ministry. Guyana’s ban on cross-dressing was struck down by the Caribbean Court of Justice in 2018.

Cases have not yet been filed (or publicized) in Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, and Grenada.

In a late breaking development, on Dec 30, 2019, the Belize Court of Appeal upheld the 2016 decision that both struck down the criminal provisions against homosexuality and that found that “sexual orientation” is included under “sex” in the list of categories upon which people may not be discriminated against under the Belize constitution. The government has not yet indicated if it will pursue a further appeal (it had only appealed the discrimination portion of the case previously) to the Caribbean Court of Justice, Belize’s final court of appeal. While the Caribbean nations’ justice systems aren’t directly linked, this decision likely throws more weight behind the other pending cases.

Europe

Up to 2009: Netherlands, Belgium, Spain Sweden, Norway
2010-2018: Portugal, France, Iceland, UK (minus Northern Ireland, but including Gibraltar, Isle of Man, Jersey, Guernsey, Alderney, Akrotiri and Dhekelia), Ireland, Germany, Malta, Luxembourg, Denmark (and Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Finland
Civil unions in Andorra, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Liechtenstein
Updates in 2019: Austria (came into effect Jan 1), Northern Ireland (comes into effect in 2020); Sark (UK Crown Dependency; comes into effect in 2020); Civil unions become law in San Marino, Monaco (comes into effect in 2020)

(Europe in 2009 vs 2019: Dark Blue = equal marriage, Light Blue = civil unions, Mauve = very limited recognition of foreign same-sex partnerships; NOTE: these maps imply no judgement on the territorial disputes involving Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, and Georgia; they’re just the maps I pulled from Wikipedia and slightly modified)

Looking ahead to 2020: Switzerland’s years-long debate on same-sex marriage is expected to come to law in 2020, following elections that saw pro-equality forces win a larger majority this year. It’s unclear if a referendum will be held on the issue. A marriage bill has stalled in Czechia, but could still be revived in the new year. San Marino may see the issue come up as well.

Austria: A constitutional court ruling in 2017 came into effect Jan 1, 2019. The right-wing coalition government had initially opposed the ruling, but did pass enabling legislation. A bill was passed specifically to allow people from countries that do not allow same-sex marriage to marry in Austria. However, the law currently requires LGBT couples who’d married abroad prior to 2019 to divorce and remarry to have the marriage recognized in Austria.

UK: The minority parliament managed to pass a bill in October legalizing same-sex marriage (and abortion) in Northern Ireland – the only part of the UK not to allow it. The bill takes effect 13 January 2020, though due to the waiting period, the first marriages are expected to occur around Valentine’s Day.
The tiny Crown Dependency Sark (pop 600, a dependency of the dependency Guernsey) passed a bill for same-sex marriage in December. It has to be approved by the UK Privy Council (expected in February 2020) before it can take effect. It was the last remaining territory in Western Europe (other than the Vatican) to recognize same-sex couples.
Gibraltar amended its Marriage Act to remove the right of registrars to opt out of solemnizing same-sex marriages.
As discussed in the section on the Americas, courts in the Cayman Islands held that same-sex marriage is not required by law, but civil partnerships are. The case, and another case from 2018 in Bermuda, will likely end up before the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council in 2020, which will likely determine the fate of equal marriage in the UK’s other holdout territories: Anguilla, Montserrat, Virgin Islands, and Turks and Caicos. During the minority Parliament, a committee had also called on the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to impose an equal marriage law on all territories by an order-in-council (similar to how the UK decriminalized sodomy in those territories in 2000), but it’s not clear how the new government intends to proceed on the issue (if at all).

Monaco: After years of debate, Monaco’s legislature unanimously passed a civil unions bill despite the threat of veto by the country’s Prince. You may have thought Monaco was a constitutional democracy with a figurehead prince like the UK, but in fact, the Prince wields extensive legislative and executive power derived from his divine monarchical rights through the Catholic Church (this is the same reason Liechtenstein won’t have same-sex marriage or adoption any time soon). For years, he had opposed recognizing LGBT couples and had proposed a compromise that recognized them as being essentially equal to siblings or cousins. The compromise legislation allows family members to form registered relationships, but also creates a civil unions specifically for LGBT couples. The civil union contract provides for limited enumerated rights. It is expected to come into force in mid-2020.

San Marino: San Marino’s civil union law passed last year and came into effect in February 2019.  In March, the country passed a constitutional amendment banning discrimination based on sexual orientation. A 2017 proposal passed by Parliament allowing foreign LGBT couples to marry in San Marino has not yet been enacted, but we’ll keep an eye out to see if it comes up in 2020. (You’d think that constitutional amendment passed this year might also set a precedent for full same-sex marriage rights).

Czechia: A same-sex marriage bill was debated in Parliament in May but appears to have stalled.

Estonia: The Supreme Court ruled that foreign LGBT partners of Estonian citizens may apply for residency rights in June 2019.

Serbia: A lesbian couple filed a legal challenge seeking a civil partnership in July. Prime Minister Ana Brnabić’s female partner gave birth to a son in February.

Romania: Seven couples have brought a case to the ECHR seeking to compel the government to create civil partnerships in compliance with the ECHR’s 2015 decision Oliari v Italy. [EDIT: A civil partnership bill failed in the legislature in 2019]

[EDIT:

Lithuania: In January, the Constitutional Court affirmed the right of foreign same-sex spouses to reside in Lithuania, in compliance with the 2018 European Court of Justice ruling.

Poland: In February, an administrative court found that while a same-sex couple married in Portugal could not register their marriage in Poland under current law, the constitution does not prevent the government from amending the law to allow it. Most scholars had previously considered Poland’s 1997 constitution to have an iron-clad same-sex marriage ban. As both partners were Polish, the ECJ ruling on recognizing foreign spouses did not apply.

Montenegro: A civil partnership bill failed in the legislature.

France: A bill to allow medically assisted reproduction for lesbian couples passed the lower house of Parliament, and awaits a vote in the Senate.]

Other developments: The right-wing government that opposes same-sex marriage was reelected in Andorra, effectively keeping the issue down until 2023. The right-wing coalition collapsed in Italy, bringing the centre-left Democrats back to power in Italy, but equal marriage does not appear to be a top-of-mind issue there. A pro-LGBT-marriage president was elected in Slovakia, and while she doesn’t have direct power over the issue, it hints that the issue is opening up there. A right-wing government was elected in Greece, which will likely put the issue off for another four years there. Polls show majority support for same-sex marriage in Andorra, Czechia, Italy, Slovenia, and Switzerland.

New countries: It seems the momentum has left the Catalonia separatist movement in Spain, but that country remains embroiled in a political crisis at time of writing. Scotland’s separatists have renewed calls for independence in the aftermath of the December election and the upcoming Brexit. Both countries would be born with legal same-sex marriage if they ever become independent. Efforts to reunify Cyprus have continued to run up against a brick wall, so North Cyprus will remain effectively independent for the time being, and thus outside the scope of Cyprus’ civil partnership law, or EU law.

European Union: EU expansion has remained stalled as members dealt with Brexit. But the final deal resolving the name dispute between Greece and North Macedonia has held through a change of government, meaning it may soon begin accession negotiations. EU membership comes with a number of LGBT rights advancements, including recognition of couples for residency purposes. Meanwhile, countries in the EU have gradually been adopting or codifying the 2018 ECJ ruling regarding foreign same-sex spouses’ residency rights.

Africa

Up to 2009: South Africa, Spanish territories
2010-2018: Portuguese, French and UK territories
Updates in 2019: Court case proceeding in Namibia

More important in Africa is the campaign to decriminalize same-sex relations.

Decriminalized 2010-2018: Lesotho, São Tomé and Príncipe, Mozambique, Seychelles
Criminalized 2010-2018: Chad, South Sudan (new country)
Decriminalized 2019: Angola, Botswana
Criminalized 2019: Gabon

Angola: Following years of debate, Angola passed a new penal code that decriminalized gay sex in January. It is the last of the Lusophone (Portuguese-speaking) countries to do so.

Botswana: The High Court of Botswana struck down the sodomy law in June, however the government has announced an appeal. The High Court also found that the prohibition on discrimination based on “sex” in the constitution also forbade discrimination based on sexual orientation.

Kenya: The High Court of Kenya upheld the sodomy laws in May, though activists have said they plan to appeal.

Mauritius: A constitutional challenge to the colonial sodomy law had its first hearing in November, with a second hearing scheduled for Feb 18, 2020.

Namibia: In the wake of Botswana’s High Court ruling, several prominent politicians called for the sodomy laws to be repealed. In June, three cases seeking access to legal marriage for same-sex couples (both domestic and bi-national) were brought forward. We’ll keep an eye on this going forward.

Gabon: The small Francophone country passed its first law to criminalize same-sex relations. The penalty is up o 6 months in prison and a 5 million CFA franc fine (nearly $8500 USD).

Morocco: The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe called on Morocco to decriminalize same-sex relations. Activists called for a repeal.

Tunisia: An openly gay man announced a run for the presidency in the 2019 elections. Crackdowns on LGBT people continued.

Zambia: The country became a flashpoint after a local gay couple was sentenced to 15 years in prison under the sodomy law. The US Ambassador was recalled after he publicly expressed outrage at the sentence, drawing the ire of local politicians.

Asia-Pacific

Up to 2009: Nada
2010-2018: New Zealand, Australia, French territories, UK territories, US territories (Guam and Northern Mariana Islands only); limited recognition in Israel; limited civil partnerships in parts of Taiwan and Japan
Updates in 2019: Taiwan; limited civil partnerships recognized in China and expanded couple recognition in Hong Kong, limited civil partnership registries expand to more municipalities in Japan.

(In the above map, Dark Blue = equal marriage, Blue = civil unions, Light Blue = limited registered partnerships; Pale Blue = limited partnerships in some municipalities; Purple = foreign marriages recognized; Mauve = limited recognition of foreign marriages; Yellow = criminal prohibition on homosexuality unenforced; Tawny = limits to free expression for LGBT people; Orange = enforced criminal penalty; Dark Orange = unenforced death penalty; Red = death penalty for homosexuality)

Looking ahead to 2020: American Samoa may be forced to legalize same-sex marriage in the wake of a federal court’s citizenship ruling; civil partnership law expected to come to a vote in Thailand; Israel will go to the polls for a third time in twelve months this March, in an election that could bring to power a progressive coalition that favors equal marriage.

The decriminalization movement also had a very successful decade

Decriminalized 2010-2018: India, Fiji, Nauru, Palau, Sri Lanka (law nullified, but not repealed)
Criminalized 2010-2018: parts of Indonesia

India was previously home to more than half the world’s population living in criminalizing states. The court decision decriminalizing it has inspired courts in many parts of the world since, including Trinidad and Tobago and Botswana, to decriminalize (although, notably, the Kenya High Court was not convinced), as many of these countries laws against homosexuality come from the same source – British colonial laws – and use the same language. Notably, it’s also inspired activists and legislators across the region to push to end these laws.

And while Fiji, Nauru, and Palau are tiny countries, they represent about a third of the countries in Oceania that criminalized homosexuality in 2009. The momentum is building.

A similar thing is happening with marriage equality. Whereas very recently it was commonplace to read that marriage equality would never come to Asia, legalization in Taiwan appears to have spurred activists across the continent to push for equality. Equal marriage movements are now well-established in South Korea, Japan, China, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, and India – even if more victories seem far off now.

Taiwan: Amid much drama, in May, the Taiwanese government managed to pass an equal marriage bill ahead of a 2017 court-imposed deadline of May 24, 2019. The bill provides almost total equality, although only stepchild adoption is permitted by same-sex couples. It was a compromise bill, after last year’s referendum saw strong majorities opposed to full equality.

China: Reports emerged this year of great numbers of LGBT couples taking advantage of a 2017 guardianship law to essentially create civil partnerships with very limited rights and legal recognition. Meanwhile, a commission reviewing China’s civil code has received hundreds of thousands of demands for same-sex marriage. While the government appears to acknowledge the demand, it’s considered at this point unlikely to accommodate it in the draft code update to be released in 2020. It goes without saying, but if China legalized, it would be the biggest country in the world to do so, more than doubling the current population living in equal marriage states.

Hong Kong: Court cases seeking equal marriage and LGBT civil partnerships were filed in January, but only the civil partnership case was heard, in May. A separate court case found that LGBT couples married abroad are entitled to spousal and tax benefits in June, and the government has complied.

Japan: Starting in 2015, a handful of municipalities offered partnership certificates to LGBT couples. Although these carry no legal weight, they reportedly can help with certain administrative procedures, like hospital visitation or securing housing. In 2019, the number of municipalities offering the certificates skyrocketed from just 9 to 30, with a further 10 to begin offering them in 2020. In addition, Ibaraki prefecture (one of Japan’s 47 sub-national jurisdictions) began offering them.
Additionally lawsuits seeking equal marriage were filed with the courts in February. Japan’s constitution contains an ambiguously worded definition of marriage that some claim bans same-sex marriage. Support for same-sex marriage was expressed by the Japanese Bar Association in a public letter to the government in June. One of the major opposition parties also supports same-sex marriage, but the government is not expected to face a serious challenge in the 2020 elections. Public opinion is generally considered to be in favor of equal marriage.
One potentially notable event: The government halted the deportation of a Taiwanese man who had overstayed his visa, recognizing his 25-year relationship with a male citizen.

Philippines: A case seeking same-sex marriage was thrown out by the Supreme Court in September. Legislation both for civil unions and “SOGIE” non-discrimination also stalled in the face of opposition from the president of the Senate.

South Korea: The government announced it would recognize the same-sex spouses of foreign diplomats in September. In February, the national human rights commission refused to hear a case of a binational queer couple seeking recognition and residency rights.

Thailand: A civil partnership bill has been approved by the Cabinet, but has not yet been voted on by the legislature. It is expected to pass in 2020. Still, some activists are calling for full equal marriage.

Singapore: Another challenge of the criminal sodomy law was filed in September.

India: Court cases were filed seeking same-sex marriage. One was thrown out in June by the Delhi High Court, which ruled that was up to the legislature to decide. Meanwhile, India passed a trans rights bill that was opposed by many trans activists as it required completed sex reassignment surgery in order for a person’s gender to be changed on official documents. Discussion of gay rights and equal marriage became more commonplace in Indian media.

Bhutan: Taking inspiration from India, the tine Himalayan country Bhutan prepared to decriminalize homosexuality. A bill to strike gay sex offences from the criminal code passed the lower house in June, and awaits a hearing in the upper house (which only sits once every six months) in the new year. In a welcome turn, legislators have said that decriminalization is only the beginning, and they would like to proactively protect LGBT rights, with some discussion already happening around anti-discrimination, hate crimes, and couple recognitions. We’ll keep an eye on this.

Cook Islands: A bill to reform the criminal code, including by striking sodomy offences that date to the colonial period, was introduced in 2017 but has stalled amid much debate. After receiving positive global press, legislators on the select committee reviewing the bill reinserted the sodomy offences and actually made them more severe, criminalizing lesbianism for the first time. While the committee was due to present its work to parliament in February 2020, it just secured another six-month extension to do more consultation, delaying a final vote to August. We’ll follow this to see what happens. LGBT activists from New Zealand (the current nation with which it is in association) have been the most forceful critics of the legislation, and have threatened a tourism boycott.

[EDIT: Australia: Western Australia and Tasmania passed bills removing the requirement that married trans people get a divorce before changing their sex designation (a logical consequence of the 2017 same-sex marriage law). Western Australia also legalized surrogacy for same-sex couples, which takes effect in February 2020.]

Israel: The country has been in a political deadlock after two indecisive elections. A third is scheduled for March 2020. While the governing right-wing coalition is hostile to LGBT rights, the left-wing coalition has been more generally open. While marriage equality hasn’t been a key theme of any of the recent election campaigns, the left-wing coalition historically has supported opening up marriage, especially as it courts religious and ethnic minorities that are barred from marriage under the current laws that do not recognize civil or inter-faith marriages.

Nepal: Still no movement on same-sex marriage after the 2008 Supreme Court decision in favor of its legalization.

Armenia: In November, Parliament rejected a bill to further ban same-sex marriage, as it’s already banned under the constitution and Family Code.