Earlier in this series – Part 1: North America | Part 2: Latin America & Caribbean | Part 3: Asia | Part 4: Africa and Oceania | Part 5: Europe

2023 saw the global LGBT rights movement make some great strides. Here are some of the overall trends we saw.

Equal Marriage

Legalized same-sex marriage: Estonia, Nepal, Choctaw Nation (USA)
Same-sex marriage laws came into effect: Andorra
Introduced same-sex marriage bills with strong likelihood of passing: Liechtenstein, Thailand, Greece
Same-sex marriage bill being debated, may not pass: Czechia, Navajo Nation (USA)
Same-sex marriage bills introduced, no likelihood of passing: Japan, South Korea, Peru
Same-sex marriage before the courts: Japan, Bermuda, Aruba, Curacao
Civil union bills being debated: Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine
Court ordered civil unions: Hong Kong

I was a little optimistic last year when I listed about a dozen states and territories that I thought were likely to legalize same-sex marriage in 2023 – and I didn’t see Estonia or Nepal coming at all!

I’m a little more cautious this year. I think we’re almost certain to see same-sex marriage bills become law in Liechtenstein and Thailand in early 2024. Greece will depend on how willing the prime minister is willing to defy conservatives in his own party, but I think it’s a strong possibility, too.

Czechia’s legislators may be too cautious to move ahead, unfortunately, and I just can’t really tell how the momentum is going in the Navajo Nation. Cyprus is a possible dark horse here – although no marriage bill has been introduced, it tends to move with Greece on LGBT issues, and its newly elected prime minister supports it.

I also think the court decision in Aruba and Curacao is very likely to go in favor or equal marriage this spring – and if it does, I can’t see how Sint Maarten doesn’t come next. I would be very surprised if court cases in Japan and Bermuda get resolved in 2024.

I think Poland is very likely to pass its civil union bill in the new year; the Presidential veto may be an obstacle, but he may also prefer to keep his powder dry, especially since the European Court has already directed Poland to introduce them. Lithuania seems like a difficult case. It’s only a few votes shy of passing final reading, and I think it’s possible some parties reach a compromise to get it out of the way before the election – or possibly after the fall election cycle is over. Finally, despite the court order for civil unions in Hong Kong, I don’t see local legislators rushing to pass a law, out of fear of angering Beijing. I think they’ll try to run the clock and see what the courts do when the deadline passes in 2025.

Decriminalizing Homosexuality

Sodomy Decriminalized: Mauritius, Cook Islands
Stiffer penalties imposed: Uganda
Activism banned: Russia, Uganda, Kyrgyzstan
Decriminalization cases before the courts: Dominica, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Jamaica, Tunisia, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Lebanon
Decriminalization under consideration: Sri Lanka, Morocco (maybe)
Considering criminalization: Iraq

I was also a little too optimistic last year in predicting the number of decriminalizations we’d win in 2023, as it’s turned out the courts are moving slower than we’d hoped. But in this case, no news hasn’t necessarily meant bad news. We did win in two countries this year, and while we lost initially in Jamaica, that case is being appealed to the highest court.

Heading into 2024, I feel fairly confident that we’ll get rulings from the four other Caribbean island countries soon – they all share the Eastern Caribbean Supreme Court, which has already handed down two decriminalization rulings in the last two years. We don’t have dates for when the rulings will be handed down, but I would be surprised if they stretch beyond 2024.

We do have a date for Namibia’s ruling: May 17, 2024. This is probably the biggest slam dunk. The court appears to have chosen the International Day Against Homophobia to hand down its decision for a reason.

As for the four African cases, it’s an open question when these rulings will come down, and I’m not at all confident that any of them will go in our favor.

I would be surprised if Sri Lanka’s bill gets any momentum this year, but we can hope. There’s a presidential election, and a progressive candidate is currently leading in the polls — although I haven’t found anything on his stance on LGBT issues.

Still, the decriminalization movement is poised to make big gains in 2024. And in 2023, the gap between criminalizing states and equal marriage states narrowed quite a bit. I expect this gap to become much smaller in 2024.

Conversion Therapy

Banned Conversion Therapy: Iceland, Belgium, Poland, Norway, Spain, and Cyprus; US states of Minnesota and Michigan; Swiss canton Neuchatel; Mexican states Queretaro, Sinaloa, Morelos, Quintana Roo
Banned medical practice: Chile
Conversion therapy ban proposed: Mexico, Colombia, Netherlands, Finland, Switzerland, Ireland, UK; Australian states of New South Wales, Tasmania, Western Australia

The movement to ban conversion therapy has gained a lot of steam in the last couple of years, and if I had to guess, I’d say it’s because it’s a relatively low-cost way for governments to signal that they’re doing something for LGBT people, particularly if you’re running a country that’s already ticked most of the other major milestones.

Anyway, I think in the new year, we can expect a few more countries to move on this. Mexico, Ireland, Colombia, and Netherlands are probably the most likely. And I would expect those Australian states to finally get moving on their bills in the early part of the year. The UK depends on the timing of the next election. I don’t expect any US states to move on this in 2024; it’ll depend on Democrats winning new state legislatures and taking power in 2025.

Blood donation bans

Restrictions ended: Germany, USA

Restrictions reduced: Switzerland, Norway

Commonwealth of Nations

It’s been pointed out that many of the countries that have sodomy laws inherited them from their time under British colonial rule, which has led to a situation where a majority of members of the Commonwealth of Nations criminalize homosexuality.

But that ratio shifted slightly this year with Mauritius decriminalizing. Cook Islands isn’t a member directly but is represented at the Commonwealth by New Zealand, and has considered applying to join as a full member, along with Niue. All of the states most likely to decriminalize sodomy next year are also Commonwealth members, so look for this map to shift a bit in 2024. I’ve also made a dark horse prediction that Cyprus could legalize same-sex marriage in 2024.

The ratio of states with the death penalty also shifted slightly with Ghana repealing capital punishment for ordinary crimes this year. Zimbabwe has also proposed ending the death penalty — it’s not currently a member, but has applied to rejoin, although its prospects for being admitted look slim.

And that’s our year in review wrapped up!

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