2015 was a landmark year in the global equal marriage movement, with high-profile final victories in the United States and (to a lesser extent) Ireland, but progress was made in all corners of the globe. Equal marriage countries are now home to more than 1 billion people, and several countries are expected to join the equal marriage family in 2016-17.

Let’s take a look at the progress in 2015. Skip to the end for the new chart of populations of countries recognizing same-sex marriage. And of course follow me on Twitter to keep up-to-date with #equalmarriage progress throughout the year.

 

The Americas

United States

Progress on LGBT rights in the United States has been incredibly dramatic. Bear in mind that in 2003, sodomy was still illegal in 13 states. The equal marriage movement scored its first victory in 2004, when the Massachusetts Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage. Expansion of marriage rights was sporadic, halting, and subject to severe setbacks until 2013, when the US Supreme Court struck down part of the Defense of Marriage Act. By the time the US Supreme Court delivered its final judgement on same-sex marriage in June 2015, marriage rights had already been extended to 38 states, Washington, D.C., and Guam.

The Supreme Court ruling brought equal marriage to the whole country, as well as to four of the five US territories – Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. At current time, there is legal controversy over whether the US Constitution Applies in full to American Samoa – if that question is resolved in the affirmative by the Supreme Court next year, then this territory will be subject to the Supreme Court judgement as well.

Another small but significant exception also applies to the US Native Reservations, which are not entirely subject to US and state law on marriage. While a few dozen have explicitly passed laws allowing same-sex marriage, many continue to ban it. Some of the largest Native nations are now facing challenges to their bans, but with more than 600 Native governments in the US, expect this battle to go on for quite a while.

The US Supreme Court ruling is particularly significant in the global movement because several other nations – particularly those in Latin America – use judgements from the Court in establishing precedent and forming their own legal opinions.

Of course, as the country heads into an election cycle, Republican leaders are pledging to undermine the US Supreme Court judgement somehow. Throughout the country, state legislatures have reacted to the judgement by passing “religious freedom” bills that appear intended to legalize discrimination against LGBT people, and by passing laws that restrict local governments’ abilities to pass non-discrimination ordinances. Democrats have responded pledging to extend civil liberties to LGBT people at the state and federal levels, but this movement hasn’t yet gathered the momentum the marriage movement had toward the end.

Mexico

While Mexicans have had effective access to equal marriage since 2010 due to nationwide recognition of marriages performed in the few states that allow it, 2015 saw some major steps in the expansion of the right to perform a same-sex marriage in the country.

Equal marriage rights were officially established in Chihuahua, Guerrero, and Nayarit, bringing the number of states that perform same-sex marriages to 5 (out of 31), plus the federal district. In total, they’re home to about 21% of the Mexican population.

In June, the Mexican Supreme Court published a jurisprudential thesis that established that same-sex marriage bans were unconstitutional, and that civil unions were not equal to marriage. While this didn’t directly invalidate state bans, it created a mandatory process by which individuals could get an injunction to be allowed to be married. Under the Mexican legal system, individual cases do not form binding precedent, however, five cases in each state with the same outcome can lead to a law being struck down.

States across the country have issued injunctions for same-sex marriage, and a number have even issued enough to have the law struck down, but the status of same-sex marriage remains unclear in these states for now. Several states are also midway through the process of updating their civil codes to allow for same-sex marriage. Some more clarity ought to come in 2016.

Colombia

The path to equal marriage has been rocky in Colombia, where the Constitutional Court had already established the right of same-sex couples to form some kind of unspecified union in 2011, and then this year established the right to adopt children. Over the objections of the Congress, both the president and the attorney-general came out in favour of equal marriage in 2015.

The Constitutional Court was expected to deliver a final ruling on same-sex marriage in November but as of press time, no ruling has been issued.

Costa Rica

Costa Rica’s gone back-and-forth on this issue since 2013, when legislators accidentally created a legal loophole allowing same-sex marriage. The first civil marriage was authorized by a Costa Rican judge in June, but it came with several catches: only young people can enter in these marriages and they need a judge’s order after three years’ cohabitation. Later in the year, a lesbian couple and their lawyer faced criminal charges when they used a clerical error to enter into a same-sex marriage.

The president came out in favour of equal marriages in the summer, and sent a common-law civil marriage bill to the Congress in August. In December, several deputies introduced a same-sex marriage bill to Congress.

Chile

In February, Chile officially renounced its opposition to same-sex marriage in a case that is now on hold at the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, but has not actually moved to resolve the issue. President Michele Bachelet had pledged to introduce equal marriage when she ran in 2013, but two years later, little progress on this file has been evident. She’s running out of time in her mandate.

Chile did introduce same-sex civil unions in October, however — one of only three countries to settle on the half-measure in 2015.

Other Developments in the Americas

Ecuador greatly expanded its civil union legislation, although same-sex marriage remains constitutionally banned there.

Actvists in Cuba, started an equal marriage campaign independent of LGBT activist Mariela Castro’s work.

Bolivia began discussions on civil partnerships with the support of both the government and the opposition in September, although the constitution bans same-sex marriage.

An openly gay legislator in Peru tried to get a civil partnership law introduced, but it was shelved in April after receiving very little support.

Venezuela elected a new centre-left coalition to its Congress in December to replace the ruling socialists. Among the winners was the country’s first trans legislator, who has pledged to make legalizing same-sex marriage a priority.

There was also progress in a number of the dependent territories; see UK, Denmark, and Netherlands below.

 

Europe

Ireland

One of the most dramatic and symbolic recent victories for the movement came in Ireland, where an equal marriage referendum passed with 62% in favour in May. Ireland is thus far the only country to pass equal marriage by referendum (though some US States did as well), which has been both a positive and a negative for the movement. On the plus side, it demonstrated that even in a country thought to be as conservative and Catholic as Ireland, there’s empirical evidence of popular support for our rights. On the other hand, conservatives who want to hold up the expansion of marriage rights have used it as an example of why we ought to welcome further referenda on our basic family rights (see also, Slovenia, Australia, US, etc.).

In the wake of the victory in Ireland, several other European jurisdictions began having public discussions about equal marriage, particularly in the UK, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, and Italy. It may have even helped move the needle in Cyprus and Greece (see below).

United Kingdom

Parliament passed a law for equal marriage in 2013, but this only applied to England and Wales. Scotland passed its own law in 2014. That leaves Northern Island, the crown dependencies, and the overseas territories, all of which took steps to advancing equal marriage in 2015.

Northern Ireland (pop. 1.8 million) has seen huge debate over the past few years on this issue, but the NI Assembly does not seem able to resolve it. The political structure in NI allows representatives of either the Protestant or Catholic communities to veto legislation unless a majority of the representatives of both communities vote in favour. While the Catholic bloc (perhaps ironically) has been very supportive of equal marriage, it is the Protestant bloc, controlled by Evangelicals that is opposed. The Assembly voted on equal marriage for a fourth and fifth time in 2015, finally achieving majority support in November. Unfortunately, the Protestant (DUP) bloc vetoed. This has proved to be something of an embarrassment to the NI public, who have moved overwhelmingly in support of same-sex marriage in the wake of the referendum in the Republic. The matter has now been taken to the courts, which are expected to rule sometime after Christmas on a) whether NI must legalize same-sex marriage, and b) whether it must recognize same-sex marriages performed in other parts of the UK.

The three crown dependencies all took steps toward equal marriage in 2015. The Chief Minister of the Isle of Man (pop. 85,000) came out and said it was a priority to equalize marriage by June 2016; a bill will begin debate in January. Jersey (pop. 100,000) and Guernsey (pop. 66,000) both led public consultations on the issue, and their local assemblies (the States) both passed resolutions supporting equal marriage. They are expected to pass actual legislation by early 2017.

Among overseas territories, the tiny Pitcairn Islands (pop. 48) surprised the world by announcing that same-sex marriage was legal there in May. The Falkland Islands (pop. 3,000) conducted a review of their family law that recommended legalizing same-sex marriage in May as well, but conclusive action has not yet been taken. In November, Gibraltar (pop. 29,000) re-elected a government that pledged to consult on same-sex marriage by June 2016; just before Christmas, the government released its “Command Paper” on same-sex marriage, kicking off three weeks of public debate on its draft bill. Bermuda (pop. 64,000) spent a big chunk of the year holding public consultations on the issue, which now has slim majority support. In November, a Bermuda court ruled that the government must give some recognition for same-sex couples for immigration purposes, and the government is now trying to figure out how to proceed. Meanwhile, another case is going through the courts asking for full marriage rights. In the Cayman Islands (pop. 55,000), the issue has been very live, although the local government is very strongly opposed. The Cayman government has pledged to introduce some kind of recognition for immigration purposes in reaction to a court case earlier in the year, but is publicly hostile to the idea of marriage equality.

All of the British Overseas Territories are subject to the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights, which ruled against Italy this year for its refusal to grant any kind of family rights to same-sex couples. While the ruling doesn’t directly affect other states (and notably doesn’t require “marriage”), citizens of those states could bring cases to the ECHR using the same precedents. The ruling has inspired much discussion in the BOTs. Ultimately, as the signatory, the UK is responsible for upholding an ECHR ruling, and theoretically, the UK government could pass an order-in-council requiring its overseas territories to recognize some kind of civil partnership or marriage legislation (as it did in 2000 to strike down local sodomy bans), but the current Cameron government has not indicated it will do so.

Denmark

Denmark’s 2012 equal marriage law did not apply to its territories, Greenland and the Faroe Islands. Greenland (pop. 55,000) passed its own equal marriage law in May, which awaits approval from the Danish Parliament. The Faroe Islands (pop. 50,000) had an election in September, in which equal marriage was a live issue; pro-equality forces won out (including the country’s first out legislator) and in November introduced, though not yet passed, an equal marriage law.

Slovenia

And here’s our first big setback of 2015. In a somewhat surprising move, the Slovenian parliament passed an equal marriage law in March, making it the first post-communist and first Slavic country to do so. The law was immediately challenged under provisions of the country’s constitution that allow citizens to initiate petitions for referenda, as long as the issue doesn’t deal with fundamental rights. A protracted political and legal battle ensued, with Parliament blocking the petition as invalid on rights grounds and the Constitutional Court ultimately ruling in November that the referendum must proceed, with the question of its legality to be decided at another time. The referendum was held December 20, and the results were decisive: 63% voted against the marriage law, meeting the 20% turnout quorum. Slovene activists and legislators have vowed to bring the issue up again, but it will likely be some time before we see it.

Other Developments in Europe

The German-speaking public seemed to solidify its support for equal marriage. Germany’s parliament has a theoretical majority in favour, but the governing coalition (led by Merkel’s Christian Democrats) is refusing to pass an equal marriage law. Nevertheless, the German Federal Council passed an equal marriage law in September. However, the governing coalition blocked consideration of a different equal marriage bill in the Diet in December. Expect the issue to continue simmering through the 2017 federal elections.

A similar dynamic is at play in Austria, where a citizen’s initiative is now gathering support for an equal marriage law. At the end of December, a Vienna court rejected an appeal for same-sex marriage, which used the interesting tactic of having the children of gay couples sue because the state forces them to be considered illegitimate. The court found illegitimate children are not discriminated against in modern society. The children may appeal in the new year.

Switzerland will have a referendum on Feb. 28, 2016, to effectively ban same-sex marriage; the government is campaigning against it, and has indicated that if it fails, it will likely move forward with another referendum affirming equal marriage (as required under the Swiss constitution).

Portugal amended its 2010 same-sex marriage law to allow same-sex couples to adopt.

The Netherlands has been pushing its Caribbean countries (Aruba, Curacao, and Sint Maarten) to pass equal marriage, but as yet there is little evidence of the agenda advancing. All three pledged to equalize treatment of same-sex couples in April, but thus far, only a bill to introduce civil partnerships in Aruba has come forward.

Slovakia successfully defeated a referendum in February that would have further banned same-sex marriage, but it remains illegal there (notably, voters were 90% in favour of banning same-sex marriage, but campaigners convinced supporters to stay at home, denying the referendum quorum). Meanwhile, for the first time, polls showed majority support for same-sex marriage in the Czech Republic.

A small setback happened in Estonia, where a new governing coalition has refused to pass enabling legislation to enact the civil union law passed last year by the previous government. The law will still come into force in January while the government tries to sort this out, which may cause some legal troubles for couples.

Same-sex marriage was also a major topic in national elections in Israel; the pro-equality parties were defeated at the polls. An NGO filed a case for same-sex marriage with the High Court in November.

Cyprus passed a civil union law in December, and Greece followed with its own civil union law a couple weeks later — this resolves an ECHR case against Greece for non-recognition of same-sex couples. Italy’s government has been pushing for a civil union law to be passed by the end of this year (partly in response to the above-mentioned ECHR ruling), but an opposition filibuster is holding it up. But in late December an Italian court upheld the right of same-sex partners to adopt their stepchildren, which may take the wind out of some opponents’ sails. The government of Monaco has also pledged to introduce some form of civil union (along the lines of France’s PACS) for debate in 2016-17, in order to meet the requirements of the ECHR ruling.

Minor parties also submitted no-hope bills for marriage and civil unions in Hungary and Romania, respectively.

All these changes are having an effect on the European Union, whose Parliament has made repeated calls for greater LGBTI rights in and out of the Union. At present, members that do not recognize same-sex marriages or civil unions are not obligated to recognize marriages/unions from other members, but this will no doubt come under increasing pressure given a) the ECHR ruling and b) the union’s fundamental freedom of movement for members. Currently, 11/28 member states representing 47% of the population have passed same-sex marriage laws (though Finland’s does not kick in until 2017); 21/28 will have either marriage or civil unions on January 1, representing 72% of the population. (Italy will bring the number to 22/28 or 84% of the population). Eventual union-wide directives on marriage/unions will have an effect not only on current members, but may also impact prospective members (Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia, Albania, Kosovo, Turkey, Moldova, Ukraine) and associated countries.

 

Australia

Same-sex marriage continues to be a political football in Australia, where despite massive public support, the current right-wing federal government remains officially opposed. New PM Malcolm Turnbull, previously a staunch supporter, now insists that equal marriage will be put to a plebiscite after the next federal election in early 2017, in order to placate the Nationalist members of his coalition government. The opposition Labour party is now strongly in favour and pledges to pass it within 100 days if it wins the next election. It’s theoretically possible that Turnbull sells out the Nationals in 2016 to remove the issue from the upcoming election. Look for this battle to dominate English-language news coverage of the equal marriage movement for the next couple of years.

 

Asia

No state in Asia legalized same-sex marriage in 2015, but significant movement happened in this region. Four municipalities in Japan created same-sex couple registries, in a move to pressure the national government to act on equal marriage. Public opinion is now leaning in favour, and the government has said it wants to clean up its record on LGBT rights in advance of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (after the Sochi backlash). An equal marriage law would require a constitutional amendment. If introduced, Japan would be the third-largest country by population to equalize marriage.

A formal public consultation on the issue in Taiwan also found majority support for equal marriage laws. Three cities there opened up same-sex couples registries this year, and the issue has been live in the presidential election, scheduled for January 2016. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party is expected to win, and it has supported same-sex marriage in the past. Meanwhile, in mainland China, a man has filed suit against the government hoping to have his same-sex marriage recognized.

Discussion of equal marriage also continued in South Korea, Nepal, Thailand, Vietnam, The Philippines, and Cambodia. Look for this region to become the next major frontier in the global equal marriage movement.

 

Populations of Countries with Same-Sex Marriage

Argentina		41,660,417
Belgium		11,180,320
Brazil		201,032,714
Canada		35,295,770
Denmark		5,623,501
Greenland (forthcoming)		56,968
Finland (March 2017)		5,448,025
France		66,417,590
Iceland		325,010
Ireland		4,593,100
Luxembourg		537,000
Mexico		121,736,809
Netherlands		16,810,900
Carribean Netherlands		23,296
Carribean Countries that Recognize Netherlands Marriages Only (Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten)		289,476
New Zealand		4,502,060
Norway		5,096,300
Portugal		10,562,178
South Africa		52,981,991
Spain		46,704,314
Sweden		9,633,490
United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, Pitcairn Islands only)		62,700,048
United States + territories (excluding American Samoa)		321,522,000
Uruguay		3,286,314
TOTAL		1,028,019,591

Countries Most Likely to Legalize Same-Sex Marriage in 2016-17

 

Countries Most Likely to Legalize Same-Sex Marriage in 2016-17
Australia		23,702,300
Bermuda		64,000
Colombia		47,121,089
Costa Rica		4,586,353
Chile		16,634,603
Faroe Islands		49,947
Falkland Islands		2,955
Gibraltar		30,001
Guernsey		65,345
Isle of Mann		84,497
Jersey		97,857
Nepal		26,494,504
Northern Ireland		1,841,245
Switzerland		8,183,800
Total		128,958,496
Longshots for Same-Sex Marriage 2016-2020
Andorra		85,082
Austria		8,504,850
Cuba		11,238,317
Germany		80,716,000
Israel		8,107,000
Italy		60,782,668
Japan		126,919,659
Slovenia		2,061,085
Taiwan		23,373,517
Venezuela		33,221,865
Total		355,010,043
Grand Total		483,968,539

Countries without Same-Sex Marriage, but with Some Other Form of Recognized Same-Sex Union

Andorra		85,082
Australia		23,702,300
Austria		8,504,850
Chile		16,634,603
Colombia		47,121,089
Costa Rica		4,586,353
Croatia		4,284,889
Cyprus		1,117,000
Czech Republic		10,513,209
Ecuador		15,761,731
Estonia		1,315,819
Germany		80,716,000
Greece		10,816,286
Hungary		9,877,365
Israel		8,107,000
Liechtenstein		37,132
Malta		446,547
San Marino		32,576
Slovenia		2,061,085
Switzerland		8,183,800
Rest of UK + territories		2,012,355
Total		255,917,071

Countries Most Likely to Legalize Same-Sex Civil Unions in 2016-17

Bolivia		10,556,102
Italy		60,782,668
Monaco		36,371
Taiwan		23,373,517
Cayman Islands		54,878
Turks and Caicos		32,000
Virgin Islands		27,000
Total		94,862,536

Stay tuned to @robsalerno on Twitter for #equalmarriage updates throughout the year.